Any Day Now You’re Gonna Lose Your Shirt
The Wall Street Journal is my favorite read. And, yes, once in a while they disappoint.
The gist of the article is that market cycles do not last forever and that no one really knows when the tide is going to ebb: All of this is true enough, but the implication that the author is going for, and thus the headline effect, in my opinion, is to prod the reader into the pessimists’ abyss.
Also, I found the claim that this was the longest bull on record, “…the longest in the S&P 500’s more-than-90-year history.”, incorrect. The longest bull market defined as a come-back from at least a 20% fall from a previous high was 14.8 years* (circa 1947-1962) followed by a 12.8 run (circa 1986 – 1999); the current bull market is around ten years old, a mere middle-ager in secular market speak.
Now take a look at the chart. Even if the business cycle may be slowing, not the market cycle – whatever that means, equity markets can continue higher for long periods, including recessions.
It’s not quite abyss time yet.
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Carlos Dominguez – CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, Portfolio Manager, RJFS
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