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Daily Commentary

November 1st, 2019

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Headline News:

U.S. stock futures are set to move higher after the employment report showed job growth slowed less than expected. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 128,000 jobs in October. Also, the ISM employment measure for the manufacturing industry will be released later today. The report may show manufacturers may be planning workforce reductions. Investors are now looking for indicators that the economy is not slowing as much as predicted.

Markets:

The S&P 500 closed lower at 3037.56 on Thursday, but the index remained in the 3025.96-3050.10 trading range. Volume was above average, and the RSI index trended down on the day to close at 61.54. We believe the selling was possibly month-end window dressing along with some needed profit-taking. With the start of the traditional, not always, strong last two months, we feel markets are still set to move higher.

We are currently long term bullish and short term bullish.

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John N. Lilly III
Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠
Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠
Portfolio Manager, RJ
Partner, DJWMG
Dominguez & Jones Wealth Management Group

 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements.

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S stock market. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investors’ results will vary. Opinions expressed are those of the author John N. Lilly III, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. “There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecast provided herein will prove to be correct. “The information contained was received from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing always involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss. No investment strategy can guarantee success. The charts and/or tables presented herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered as the sole basis for your investment decision. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets.

The most closely watched of all economic indicators, the employment situation is a set of monthly labor market indicators based on two separate reports: the establishment survey which tracks 650,000 worksites and offers the nonfarm payroll and average hourly earnings headlines and the household survey which interviews 60,000 households and generates the unemployment rate.
Nonfarm payrolls track the number of part-time and full-time employees in both business and government. Average hourly earnings track employee pay while the average workweek, also part of the establishment survey, tracks the number of hours worked. The report’s private payroll measure excludes government workers.
The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known data from the household survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.

The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses

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